Ze Final Offensive – Part 2.http://www.lacelesteblog…funsive.jpgThe Confederations Tournament is over… Uruguay finished fourth by virtue of losing to Italy on penalties. Now the question is, what happens now? Glad you asked. What happens now is that the second part of Uruguay’s final offensive push to get into the 2014 World Cup officially starts.
But before that happens…
August 14 – Japan vs UruguayA meaningless friendly unofficially starts the Sky-Blues’ final offensive push. Meaningless is to put it politely, but come to think of it, is it meaningless? Japan gave Italy a bit of scare in their 4-3 Confederations Group loss to Italy. For Uruguay and for Tabárez, this match is picking up where things left off, another “Calcio” style match. Japan’s manager, Alberto Zaccheroni is a Serie-A lifer, he even coached Recoba but more importantly, he is the originator of one of OWT’s favorite tactical formations, the 3-4-3. Whereas Zaccheroni understands this formation as more offensive minded, as the removal of one defender in the back allows you to play with an extra midfielder, Tabárez sees the 3-4-3 as a chance to stick in an extra ball-winner at midfield. While the game will mean nothing when it’s all said and done, this first clash, positions Uruguay for what’s in store for Uruguay’s NT manager and La Celeste. Tense tactical battlegrounds.
September 6 – Peru vs UruguayThis is it, either Uruguay is all-in or the inevitable gets pushed for a future date, possibly vs Ecuador or Argentina… what is the inevitable? Uruguay’s elimination. This will be the 4th and possibly last showdown between Tabárez and his one time master, Sergio Markarián. Markarián’s origin for getting into coaching is interesting. He saw Uruguay’s loss to Holland at the 1974 World Cup as a call to arms, that Uruguay who couldn’t get out of their own half, were tactically outdated. So he quit his job and undertook the long arduous road of becoming a football manager. Along the way, he coached Tabárez, whose playing career was coming to an end. So there is a bit of “Teacher vs Pupil” angle to this, who will prevail will be determined by who has the better prepared side come September.
Now on to the game… this is where Uruguay, with this squad, with this coach, can prove to the 3.5 million who live in Uruguay and the expat community that lives vicariously through the national team’s exploits that Uruguay is not dead but will fight tooth and nail to get in. Peru is working against not only a 32 year old World Cup drought, but against a sports culture that struggles to find itself in a professional/unprofessional environment. Uruguay despite all their troubles, the year that was 2012, has to win this match. 3 points are up for grab, but the question is can Uruguay pull the upset. And it will be an upset if they manage to win in Lima, against a Peru side that are still mathematically in it. A draw wouldn’t be all that bad here but a win takes away the pressure from having to secure a win in Quito.
Likelihood of a win?In 2001, Uruguay under a caretaker coach, was able to go into Lima and get a 2-0 win. But since the 2006 Qualifiers, Uruguay hasn’t been able to come back from Lima with more than one point. It was a nil-all draw in 2005 and a 1-0 loss in 2009. Can the tide be reversed? This is where hopefully, somehow the Confederations Cup experience especially in the last two games against Brazil/Italy can come into play. Uruguay will need to be come out like gangbusters if they have any realistic hope of getting into the World Cup.
September 10 – Uruguay vs ColombiaNot an easy match but also not the most difficult match on the docket. Colombia is going to the World Cup. Their campaign improved dramatically under Pekerman – their 4-0 trashing of Uruguay at Barranquilla whether enabled by the heat or not proved they’re not a side to be taken lightly. Yet, coming into Montevideo, to play this match against a team starving for points is not exactly ideal for Colombia. Why? Colombia plays a Clásico with Ecuador just four days before they are to meet Uruguay. Supposing they win or draw against Ecuador, will they have enough energy left over to play against Uruguay? By the same token, Uruguay will be spent from the Peru match. Lets suppose Uruguay come back with at least a draw at Lima. At home, at El Centenario, nervous energy all around, it will be a pressure-cooker environment. A Colombian victory is possible, you never know, but will they put it all on the line? If Colombia stays the course, worries about the home games (they have one last home game against Chile in October), this contest with Uruguay is one game they can allow themselves the luxury of losing.
What if Uruguay win at Lima?If Uruguay comes back with a win from Lima, and knowing this coaching staff – then expect a draw with Colombia, what that means is that OWT and staff will be more worried about a Colombian Blitzkrieg than trying to get the win. There’s also the Centenario factor, the prolonged qualifier structure employed by CONMEBOL has taken away some of the confounded mysticism from El Centenario. So a draw at home to this side, provided the win is secured at Lima is nothing to be embarrassed about.
October 11 – Ecuador vs UruguayDiego Forlán’s 2010 World Cup started in 2009, although we can actually debate whether it was the Quito game or the Paraguay game played in March of 2009, the penalty kick in Quito was the stuff of legends. 4 years later, Forlán is dreadful at the penalty spot. Hoping Uruguay somehow gets fouled and are then given a penalty for Forlán to make would be too much for any Celeste Supporter to take. This game however won’t be a carbon copy of that match in 2009. Ecuador’s high altitude still spells murder in my book. Uruguay’s saving grace is that Tabarez has a full month to figure out which approach to take. A draw would be a good result, a win of course the most ideal result – a loss however given how Ecuador’s campaign has played out thus far is the more likely scenario.
Is a Draw Possible?Argentina marched into Quito and got the draw – Can Uruguay replicate Argentina’s achievement? It’s possible, Uruguay did just that in the 2002 and 2006 Qualifiers. Uruguay hasn’t lost to Ecuador since the 1998 Qualifiers. Where the coach is most important is determining which games will give you the most positive outcome and which games to avoid. Now, a win in Quito would be fantastic, but if the first two results hold true, a combination of a win/draw at either Lima and Montevideo, do you really need a win here? It depends of course. I would think a draw at Quito is not the worst possible outcome. A loss, provided Uruguay gets at least four points against Peru/Colombia would mean that Uruguay still would have one more chance to get in, against Argentina.
October 15 – Uruguay vs ArgentinaWith the exception of the 1998 Qualifiers, this last fixture with Argentina has been Uruguay’s saving grace to get into the 5th place spot. In the 2002 Qualifiers, the 1-1 draw was the stuff of conspiracy theories, that Argentina “gave us a hand” – In the 2006 Qualifiers, Argentina then coached by Perkerman lost on an unexpected Recoba tippy-toe goal. The conspiracy theorists probably came to the conclusion this game was also fixed. But was it? I’m not so sure, Messi was a sub back then, Argentina with Riquelme were not the world beaters everyone made them out to be. Uruguay’s loss to Argentina in 2009, shifted the conspiracy theory back to Uruguay, now it was Uruguay who was giving Argentina a “hand” in getting in.
What to expect?It’s a Clásico, anything can happen. If Uruguay don’t get the job done, meaning if they don’t get enough points in the Peru/Colombia/Ecuador matches and need this match to get in, well it would be a crapshoot. Uruguay’s 3-0 loss to Argentina last year was expected, especially since there were no attempts by the coaching staff to rejuvenate the squad. Argentina found the right Messi and the rest is history.
A lot has happened since that match. Messi playing in Bolivia and then being forced by Barcelona to play a meaningless game ruled Messi out for the most important Champions League fixtures. What pressure if any is on Argentina’s coaching staff to play Messi if Argentina is already qualified by the time this match is played? As of today Argentina is in first place, assuming Colombia goes on a tear, wins at home vs Ecuador and Chile, loses or draws with Uruguay and then gets another 3 points vs Chile… does it really matter who finishes first or second? Right now only 3 points separate 1st and 2nd. Argentina’s remaining matches with Paraguay, Peru and then Uruguay while important wouldn’t require a Herculean effort from Messi. A win against Paraguay would give Argentina 3 points, but then 2 Clásicos, one with Peru and Uruguay would really be more about bragging rights than anything else. Does Argentina, given the way Barça over relies on Messi, need to expose Messi to this type of situation? It’s possible Messi comes in as a sub but will he? We’ll find out come October.
If Uruguay need a result here – expect war. Expect chaos, expect the unexpected. Since coming back to Uruguay in 2006, Uruguay’s record against Argentina with OWT as manager has been 0-1-3. Maybe OWT has one last miracle left in his utility belt, maybe not.
If Uruguay concentrate on the Peru/Colombia matches and maybe a draw at either Quito or against Argentina, theres a chance Uruguay holds on to the 5th place spot in one piece. Playing for draws especially against 2 opponents is a risky proposition, but then again, playing with an aging side is also risky in itself. Risk in any field or endeavor requires the possibility of loss. In the last two years we’ve seen the best this Uruguay side is capable of and the worst this Uruguay side can succumb to. Now with the backs against the wall, this team was afforded 5 extra games to work out their problems. It’s time to put up or shut up. History, results, don’t mean anything if you can’t get on the playing field… the worst is yet to come or hope is just around the corner.