2015 Relegation Battle - Who are the Likely Candidates?
With last weekend’s relegation of Atlante to the Ascenso MX, we can now begin to look ahead to who are the likely candidates for demotion in 2015. Although there is still a lot of football to be played between now and next summer there are already some teams who will be fearing for their continued participation in the top division.
PUEBLA
Puebla are arguably the most likely side to drop down next season. A miserable 2014 has seen them win just three matches from sixteen, and they and Veracruz are firmly rooted to the foot of the table. They started 2014 with three consecutive draws, but one win between the 2nd February and 18th April highlighted their severe deficiencies.
The end of this season will see them lose their best points total from the previous six seasons (twenty two in the 2011 Apertura) along with their joint second best (nineteen in the 2012 Clausura).
So far this season they have scored the fewest goals in the entire league (eleven) and will undoubtedly need to hold on to standout performers such as US international DaMarcus Beasley and Uruguayan winger Carlos Sanchez if they are to improve to a sufficient level next season.
CHIVAS
This is a worrisome time for fans of one of Mexico’s most historic clubs. As recently as 2010 Chivas were competing the Copa Libertadores final against Brazil’s Internacional in an attempt to become the first Mexican side to lift the trophy. Although they were ultimately unsuccessful, losing 5-3 on aggregate, few would have predicted that just four years later they would be battling for their Liga MX survival.
Chivas have been a poor side for a long time. The previous six seasons have seen them amass 30, 15, 23, 16, 12, and 21 points respectively. This season they will lose the thirty points from the 2011 Apertura, and when the 2014 Apertura kicks-off in August they will unquestionable be in the midst of a desperate relegation fight.
Like their relegation rivals, Chivas have struggled for goals. Thirteen in the 2014 Clausura and sixteen in the 2013 Apertura is not enough to sustain their Liga MX status and they must surely regret letting Marco Fabian leave on loan to Cruz Azul.
Following their humiliation in the Clasico against Club America the club decided to bring back Argentine manager Ricardo La Volpe for a second spell at the club. Fans will hope he can get them playing the attractive and offensive football for which he is renowned.
There is some hope for the club. If they can beat Monterrey at the Estadio Omnilife in their final league game next Sunday they will finish this season with twenty four points – a total that would represent their best haul since the 2011 Apertura.
The early results next season will be crucial. If Chivas can pick up some early momentum they should have enough quality to survive the drop, but if results are poor and the fans become agitated we could yet see an ignominious relegation to Mexico’s second tier for Los Rojiblancos.
VERACRUZ
Veracruz have suffered mixed results on their return to the Liga MX. The 2013 Apertura saw them finish in a highly creditable twelfth place with twenty points and twenty goals, yet 2014 saw a dramatic downturn in performance levels and they are currently in last place, just behind Puebla by virtue of goal difference.
The side has severely struggled for goals throughout the campaign, managing just one more than Puebla rivals so far. Unlike Puebla and Chivas, however, they will not lose any points at the end of this season because they have not yet completed six full seasons in the top flight.
Ultimately, Veracruz have done well to survive a difficult first season with a volatile coefficient. With their place in the division assured they will hope to recruit wisely in the summer to build on the base they have established.
LEONES NEGROS OR ONE OF CORRECAMINOS, ALEBRIJES, ESTUDIANTES TECOS AND NECAXA
Leones Negros won the Ascenso’s 2013 Apertura tournament, while Correcaminos, Alebrijes, Estudiantes Tecos and Necaxa are the four semi-finalists of the 2014 Clausura. The winner of the Clausura will face Leon Negros in an end-of-season promotion playoff.
Assuming we don’t see a repeat of last season’s much-ridiculed situation which saw La Piedad win promotion only to be bought out as part of a string of franchise relocations, one of these sides will be playing Liga MX football next season.
As we so often see with newly promoted sides, their performances can go one of two ways. Tijuana and Leon are shining examples of how to quickly become competitive after moving up a level, whereas Veracruz and Necaxa have fared less well.
With a volatile coefficient during the first season there is always a risk of a fast return to the Ascenso for any newly promoted side, but the Copa MX shows us that Ascenso sides can be competitive against the Liga MX when given the chance. If whoever gets promoted can get off to a good start they could become the season’s surprise package, but a poor run of results early in the season will see confidence drain away and would likely end in a swift return to the second level.
CHIAPAS
Chiapas have progressed in the 2013/14 season, amassing a total of forty five points across the Apertura and Clausura combined, compared with only thirty one over the previous twelve months. Despite their upturn in form, they are not safe from relegation and could be dragged into the battle.
They have not struggled for goals as much as Chivas, Puebla and Veracruz, having scored eighteen so far in this campaign and twenty six in the 2013 Apertura when they narrowly missed out the Liguilla.
They will be disappointed to be losing twenty four points from their 2011 Apertura, but will be equally thankful for shedding their six-season low of twelve points from the 2012 Clausura.
ATLAS
After surviving relegation in the 2014 Clausura they appear to be the least likely of the teams discussed to face the drop next season. A team capable of incredible fluctuations, they have scored twelve points in three of their last six seasons but have tempered those lows with highs of 20, 32, and 21.
They could yet find themselves in the Liguilla this season, and with the money of TV Azteca now supporting them, they should be able to recruit enough quality in the summer to comfortably survive. They do still need to be cautious though, at the end of next season they will lose their high-score of thirty two points from the 2013 Clausura and without a solid performance in 2014/15 they could find themselves in a battle in 2015/16.
Brasil: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Botafogo (100% Carioca) Rio > Säo Paulo
MENGÃO TRI DA AMÈRICA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RlVt8zJhXQ