Predicting Mexico´s World Cup Squad - In or Out?
Miguel Herrera will be announcing his World Cup squad on Friday. While some national managers have opted to name a preliminary thirty-man squad, Herrera says he will just name the twenty three who will be on the plane. Who’s certain of their place, who can start packing their bags, and who can stay in bed? Soccerly investigates…
GOALKEEPERS
On the plane: Jesus Corona (Cruz Azul), Guillermo Ochoa (Ajaccio)
Comfortably the two best Mexican goalkeepers, Corona and Ochoa have been involved in a season-long battle to claim El Tri’s number one shirt.
Ochoa has already been to two World Cups. He travelled as Oswaldo Sanchez’s backup in 2006 at the age of twenty one, but suffered heartache in 2010 when he was controversially dropped to the bench in favor of thirty seven year old Oscar Perez. Corona was also in the 2006 squad, but was dropped in 2010 in favor of Chivas’ Luis Michel.
They are both certain of their place in their squad, but it remains to be seen who will get the nod in opener against Cameroon.
In the departure lounge: Alfredo Talavera (Toluca), Moises Muñoz (America)
Talavera has had a great six months for Toluca. Standing behind the meanest defense in the league, he conceded just fourteen goals in the regular season and helped take the side to within a whisker of Champions League victory. He made his international debut in March 2011 and has gone on to make thirteen appearances for El Tri, including six appearances in Mexico’s 2011 Gold Cup triumph.
Muñoz was Herrera’s goalkeeper at America and featured in El Tri’s vital playoff win against New Zealand last year. He has not managed to hit the heights of 2013 so far this year, though he’s not been helped by America’s inconsistent performances throughout the Clausura.
Only one of the two can go Brazil. Talavera is arguably the more in-from, but Herrera knows Moises well and that might be enough to see him given a plane ticket.
Lost their passport: Jonathan Orozco (Monterrey)
Orozco is the only other goalkeeper with a slim chance of making the squad, but since his last call up against Panama he hasn´t performed well enough level to warrant his inclusion. He looks a shadow of the player that helped guide Monterrey to three successive Champions League titles.
DEFENDERS
On the plane: Rafa Marquez (c) (Leon), Hector Moreno (Espanyol), Miguel Layun (America), Paul Aguilar (America), Diego Reyes (Porto)
Influential veteran Rafa Marquez has his detractors, but after being restored to the captaincy last year he has been vital in adding some much needed authority and organisation to the back line. Hector Moreno has proved himself to be a consistent performer and is a shoo-in to the left of Marquez in the back three. Aguilar is another certainty at right wing-back and Diego Reyes will slot in between him and Marquez at right center-back.
Layun has long been Herrera’s preferred left wing-back, and although a drop in form has seen his place come under scrutiny from Miguel Ponce, his versatility to be able to play on both flanks assures him of his place in the twenty three.
In the departure lounge: Rogelio Chavez (Cruz Azul), Enrique Perez (Atlas), Miguel Ponce (Toluca), Rodolfo Pizarro (Pachuca), Hugo Ayala (Tigres), Andres Guardado (Bayer Leverkusen), Juan Valenzuela (America), Francisco Rodriguez (America)
Aguilar’s back-up at right wing-back will be either Rogelio Chavez or twenty year old Rodolfo Pizarro. Chavez failed to impress in Mexico’s recent friendly against the United States, and Pizarro’s great season at Pachuca combined with his familiarity with the wing-back role might be enough to convince Herrera that the youngster should be taken along for the experience.
The back-up left wing-back will probably be either Andreas Guardado or Miguel Ponce, though Guardado could also be taken as a defensive-minded midfielder. Ponce has seen a resurgence in form since leaving Chivas in December, and with Guardado struggling for regular minutes at Bayer Leverkusen and Torres Nilo’s fall from favor the Toluca man is the favorite to travel.
Given Herrera’s preferred 5-3-2 formation it remains to be seen whether he takes a fifth center back. The leading candidates to be the back-up center back are Atlas’ Enrique Perez, America’s Francisco Rodriguez Tigres’ Hugo Ayala and America’s Juan Valenzuela.
Herrera and Rodriguez know each other well from their days together at America, and although he has lost his pace and can be prone to occasional errors he possesses a height and physicality that Reyes doesn´t.
Valenzuela is well-known by Herrera but is not well-regarded by fans and has started to develop a reputation as someone who can crumble under pressure. Perez has the versatility to play at right back and center back and was reportedly in the running to start ahead of Diego Reyes against South Korea.
Ayala has decent international experience and was part of Tigres team that went on a run of eight clean sheets in ten games – furthering his cause by turning in an impressive goal-scoring performance against Atlas on the final day of the season.
Herrera has a difficult decision to make.
Lost their passport: Hiram Mier (Monterrey), Efrain Juarez (Monterrey), Jorge Torres Nilo (Tigres)
Mier has suffered from injury problems and will miss out due to a lack of match fitness. Efrain Juarez has not enjoyed the best of seasons with Monterrey and has made just ten appearances, while Torres Nilo has slipped behind both Ponce and Guardado at left back.
MIDFIELDERS
On the plane: Carlos Peña (Leon), Luis Montes (Leon), Hector Herrera (Porto), Juan Medina (America), Isaac Brizuela (Toluca), Marco Fabian (Cruz Azul)
Peña has long been considered one of the few names guaranteed his place on the pitch in Natal. While this probably still remains valid, his place is now under threat in a way that was unimaginable just two months ago. His form has tailed off since scoring three goals in the opening two games of the season, and teammate Luis Montes could yet be given the nod ahead of him in the starting eleven.
Marco Fabian has enjoyed a fantastic season on loan at Cruz Azul and has catapulted himself into a seat on the plane. He may not be a starter in Brazil, but his strength and goal-scoring ability frightens defenders and make him a great option to come off the bench if Mexico need to score.
Another youngster who has had an excellent season is Toluca’s starlet Isaac Brizuela. The twenty three year old combined well with Pulido against South Korea and his tricky skills combined with his low center of gravity will make him a nuisance to any defense in Brazil.
Medina wasn´t great against Nigeria, but is trusted by Herrera and is a certainty to travel. Hector Herrera has the versatility to play as a holding midfielder or on the right of a midfield three and will compete with Montes and Pena for a starting berth.
In the departure lounge: Javier Aquino (Villarreal), Jose Vazquez (Leon), Jesus Zavala (Monterrey), Carlos Salcido (Tigres)
If Salcido gets an unlikely call up there will only be one place for either Aquino, Vazquez or Zavala. Aquino is one of the European band of players who are so difficult to analyse. For so long they seemed to have a golden ticket to El Tri squads, but Herrera has stamped his authority and now none of them can be certain of their place.
Zavala played in the recent 2-2 friendly draw with the USA and was widely regarded as having a poor game. The United States’ star performer, Michael Bradley, dominated him in the first half, and it was no surprise that Mexico looked a more complete unit once he left the pitch.
Vazquez has the benefit of playing for Leon. With more emphasis being placed on transposing club methodologies and styles into international football (think Barcelona and Spain, Liverpool and England) the fact that he plays week in, week out with squad-certainties Montes and Peña means he probably holds the advantage over his rivals.
Lost their passport: Gerardo Torrado (Cruz Azul), Fernando Arce (Tijuana), Alonso Escoboza (Santos), Jonathan Dos Santos (Barcelona), Antonio Naelson (Toluca), Rodrigo Salinas (Morelia)
The experienced trio of Salcido, Torrado and Arce have 312 caps between them, but none of them have received a call up since October’s World Cup qualifier against Costa Rica. Salcido could earn a late reprieve – his ability to play in a number of defensive and midfield roles coupled with a massive amount of tournament experience means he could offer a guiding hand to the younger squad members and World Cup debutantes.
Jonathan Dos Santos has just returned from a six-month injury layoff and is unlikely to be risked, while Naelson has almost sixty international caps and has enjoyed something of an Indian Summer this season for Toluca, but he hasn´t done enough to unexpectedly make the cut.
Salinas had an outside chance of making the cut, but a rash sending off against Puebla on the final day of the season as his side’s Liguilla chances were slipping away showed that he might not be able to handle the high-pressure environment of a World Cup.
FORWARDS
On the plane: Javier Hernandez (Man Utd), Oribe Peralta (Santos), Alan Pulido (Tigres)
Hernandez has endured a dismal eighteen months for Manchester United and has looked well short of both match fitness and confidence. His abject first half performance against Nigeria did nothing to re-endear him to the fans, but with 35 international goals to his name it remains unthinkable that the man who is joint-third in Mexico’s list of all-time leading scorers won’t make the squad.
Oribe Peralta has replaced Hernandez as Mexico’s golden boy. The 30 year old missed out on the 2006 and 2010 World Cup squads, but was an Olympic gold medalist in 2012 and has been a fixture in the national side since. He has sixteen goals in thirty starts so far.
Alan Pulido has made a late surge into the reckoning, and after comments by national team director Hector Gonzalez Inarritu he seems certain of his place among the twenty three. After only becoming a regular in the Tigres starting eleven in the 2013 Apertura, he finished both the Apertura and Clausura as his team’s top scorer. Having recently helped his team lift the Copa MX trophy and with a hat-trick on his international debut against South Korea he is evidently well-regarded by Herrera. A good World Cup could see lucrative offers Europe heading his way.
In the departure lounge: Raul Jimenez (America), Giovanni Dos Santos (Villareal)
Jimenez was considered a certainty around the turn of the year, but Alan Pulido’s fantastic performances have seen him drop back in the pecking order. He announced himself on the international scene with a world-class overhead kick against Panama last autumn, and issued a timely reminder of his talents with a hat-trick against Santos in the Liguilla quarter-finals last week. Herrera knows him well and it would be a surprise if he was left behind.
Herrera might only name four strikers, but even then Dos Santos could still be taken as a midfielder. He is popular among fans and, arguably more importantly, he is also popular among sponsors. He’s enjoyed a good season in Spain, though an injury has kept him on the side-lines for the last few weeks. While his doubters argue that he won’t easily fit into Herrera’s 5-3-2 system, it is still highly improbable that El Tri won’t take for of their most recognizable stars.
Lost their passport: Aldo de Nigris (Chivas), Carlos Vela (Real Sociedad)
Aldo de Nigris made the squad against South Korea in January, but the continued rise of Pulido and Jimenez means a place in the twenty three has slipped from his grasp. He’s not been aided by yet another average season for Chivas, for whom he scored only three goals all season.
The less said about Carlos Vela the better - though if he had declared himself available we might not have seen the emergence of Pulido into a serious El Tri contender. No one is sure why Vela refuses to play - maybe he is the only player on the entire list who genuinely has lost his passport.
Brasil: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Botafogo (100% Carioca) Rio > Säo Paulo
MENGÃO TRI DA AMÈRICA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RlVt8zJhXQ