Why is the Copa Libertadores so unpredictable this season?
The field of the Copa Libertadores, South America’s Champions League, gets whittled down from eight to four on Wednesday and Thursday. And when the competition resumes after the World Cup there is a chance that not one former champion will be among the four semifinalists.
Only two teams from the last eight have won the Libertadores -- and both lost in last week’s first leg of the quarterfinals.
Atletico Nacional of Colombia, winners in 1989, face an extremely difficult task in Montevideo on Thursday. Last week they pressed for almost the entire game against Defensor of Uruguay. One shot rattled the bar, another came back off the post. But in the last few minutes the Uruguayans sprung out to score twice.
The Colombians have saved themselves on the road before now. They only made it out of the group phase with a famous last-day 3-1 win away to Newell’s Old Boys of Argentina, last year’s semifinalists. And then they qualified for the quarterfinals by virtue of a late goal scored away to the reigning champions, Atletico Mineiro of Brazil. Can they save themselves with a third consecutive strong away performance? They will have to do with it without one of their main creative forces, talented but temperamental attacking midfielder Edwin Cardona, who idiotically got himself sent off at the end of last week’s match in Medellin.
The only other ex-champion still standing is Cruzeiro of Brazil, who lifted the trophy in 1976 and ‘97. Their task is a little easier -- they were only beaten by a single goal last week, against San Lorenzo of Argentina, and the return match this Wednesday is in front of their own fans in Belo Horizonte.
San Lorenzo’s away record in this year’s competition is not good -- one draw and three defeats, with only one goal scored. With slippery young striker Angel Correa looking highly promising, they should carry more of a threat on the counterattack -- and the bad news for Cruzeiro is that the away goals rule is in operation; if San Lorenzo score one, Cruzeiro will need three.
Should Atletico Nacional and Cruzeiro both fall, the competition would be left without any ex-champions. What’s more, the last four will not even include a former finalist -- a remarkable statistic for a competition played annually since 1960. Three of the field, Nacional of Paraguay and the Argentine pair of Arsenal and Lanus, have made club history merely by reaching the quarterfinals. This is the third quarterfinal for Defensor -- they have never made any further progress. Bolivar of Bolivia reached one semifinal in 1986, when a different format was used (the stage contained six teams, rather than four). San Lorenzo are the only major Buenos Aires club not to have won the competition; they were semifinalists in the inaugural year of 1960 and repeated the feat twice, the last time in 1988.
All of this, of course, is a remarkable contrast from Europe. On the other side of the Atlantic there is always some oscillation; Manchester United, for example, have suffered a slump season, while the Italian clubs are not as strong as a few years ago. But, in general, the same big teams are back year after year in the closing stages: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and so on. Atletico Madrid have done magnificently well this year to break into the magic circle. South America, meanwhile, seems full of Atletico Madrids.
This, though, is not really something to boast about. True, it does lend the Libertadores the charm of unpredictability. But much of this can be explained by the absence of quality. The top clubs on this side of the Atlantic find it so hard to sustain a period of dominance because there is a price to pay for their success; their best players are placed in the shop window and sold. Correa, for example, will not be around to contest too many more versions of the Libertadores with San Lorenzo. He will move to Europe and the club will suffer in his absence. Good sides get broken up, and a transitional period inevitably follows.
It is, therefore, much easier for surprise sides to make progress in South America. With good organisation, some promising youngsters, a few battle-hardened veterans and a little bit of luck they can take on the best clubs their continent has to offer -- because the best players from their continent, and all the others, have congregated in a handful of major European clubs. It is an observation that makes the achievements this season of Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid -- however the story ends -- all the more remarkable. Unlike the shock sides in the Libertadores, Simeone and his men are taking on the Messis and Cristiano Ronaldos.
Brasil: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Botafogo (100% Carioca) Rio > Säo Paulo
MENGÃO TRI DA AMÈRICA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RlVt8zJhXQ