The 2026 Target (FY26 tested by UEFA in Spring 2027)
Revenue - £620m PLUS
Jackson loan - £15m PLUS
Player trading profit before June sales - £20m
LESS costs of £785m:
Wages £400m
Player amortisation £260m
Net other expenses adjusted for UEFA allowances £100m
Exceptionals (Maresca and Sterling) £25m
Interest £10m
This gives a FY26, UEFA Football Earnings DEFICIT of £140m (€160m) before any June sales vs a UEFA target of €80m.
On these numbers, Chelsea need player trading PROFIT of €80m in June 2026 alone. And the 2026 Target is the relatively easy one to hit.
The 2027 Target (FY27 tested by UEFA in Spring 2028)
This target loss is €ZERO. As in zero euros of permitted deficit and it is not extendable if Chelsea use the €55m extra headroom for the 2026 Target which they inevitably will as detailed above.
The circuit breaker, the point at which the CFCB tears up the whole settlement agreement and the club is handed exclusion from the next UEFA competition it would otherwise qualify for, is a €20m overshoot. In other words, lose more than €20m in FY27 and Chelsea will receive a ban for 2028/2029 UEFA competition.
2027 Target (assuming Chelsea are in the Europa League final in 26/27 and finish 5th)
Revenue £525m PLUS
Player trading profit
LESS costs of £735m:
Wages £360m (assumes £40m no CL wage reduction)
Player amortisation £260m
Net other expenses adjusted for UEFA allowances £100m
Interest £15m
This gives a FY27, UEFA Football Earnings DEFICIT of £210m (€245m) before any player sales vs an upper limit of just €20m. This is challenging enough and this is a pretty generous Europa final financial case.
Chelsea’s Champions League Round of 16 exit this season was still worth around £80m plus whatever the club generated from 5 big home games. Even winning the Europa League would only be worth half. Chelsea have no way under UEFA rules to bridge a further £40-50m deficit without finding more player sale profits. Given substantial player sale profits (and not swaps or deals with Strasbourg) are clearly required for all of the forthcoming seasons, finding another £40m of profits on top will not be doable.
So what is the plan when Chelsea finish seventh (or lower) this season? On the face of it, without player sales (at profit) there is severe risk to their compliance for the the 2027 Target and the Final Targets.
Chelsea have repeatedly kicked the can down the road but UEFA’s rules are far less forgiving than the Premier League’s and whilst the sanctions have been lenient to date, UEFA punishes repeated breaches.
Chelsea is the relegation story nobody is talking about. Not from the Premier League but from Europe entirely.
“Some people believe football is a matter of life and death, I am very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”
Bill Shankly