ISW har en meget spændende update omkring Ruslands militære kapaciteter:
Især denne del er interessant, synes jeg.
"The Russian armed forces likely have few or no full-strength units in reserve to deploy to fight in Ukraine because of a flawed mobilization scheme that cannot be fixed in the course of a short war. The Russians did not deploy full regiments and brigades to invade Ukraine—with few exceptions as we have previously noted. They instead drew individual battalions from many different regiments and brigades across their entire force. We have identified elements of almost every single brigade or regiment in the Russian Army, Airborne Troops, and Naval Infantry involved in fighting in Ukraine already. The decision to form composite organizations drawn from individual battalions thrown together into ad hoc formations degraded the performance of those units, as we have discussed in earlier reports.[7] It has also committed the Russian military to replicating that mistake for the duration of this conflict, because there are likely few or no intact regiments or brigades remaining in the Russian Army, Airborne Forces, or Naval Infantry. The Russians have no choice but to continue throwing individual battalions together into ad hoc formations until they have rebuilt entire regiments and brigades, a process that will likely take years."
"The Russians cannot expect to benefit from the roughly 200,000 conscripts and reservists they are currently mobilizing until late summer or fall at the earliest. If they send those people to fight sooner than that, they will suffer disproportionate casualties while adding little to the effective strength of any units they join."
Linket er her:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9Det tyder ikke godt for Putin iforhold til at få en sejr før den 9/5.
Yderligere er det vel ikke urealistisk at soldaterne fra den ukrainske reserve er tættere på at være klar end for den russiske.
linket er her:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9